At the Fifth Session of the 10th National People's Congress, it was announced
that the country's military budget for 2007 is 350.92 billion yuan, or roughly
US$44.94 billion. This marks a 17.8 per cent increase over the previous year, or
$6.8 billion.
The increase has drawn wide attention from the international community. Many
express misgivings out of shear misunderstanding. But some look at the increase
through stained lenses or stretch the matter to suit their own ends. Others try
to use the growth in China's military spending to create a propaganda splash.
A famous Chinese saying goes: "Seeking truth after facts." There is a similar
saying in the West: "Facts speak louder than words." These two sayings apply to
evaluating China's military spending increase.
I would like to offer my point of view in the hope of clearing away
misunderstanding.
First comes the question: Why the increase by the unprecedented wide margin
of 17.8 percent?
The growth is primarily caused by the sharp increase in the wages, living
expenses and pensions of 2.3 million People's Liberation Army officers, civilian
personnel, soldiers and army retirees. The pay rise came in the latter half of
2006.
Large numbers of officers from battalion level down and non-commissioned
officers received the sharpest pay rise 100 percent.
These people constitute the backbone of the military forces, directly
involved in leading soldiers in military duties, training programs and
logistical activities. On the personal side, they are the primary source of
income for their families. Over a long period of time, their wages have remained
very modest.
In view of all this, it is imperative to raise their pay by large margins.
The pay of the officers from the regimental level up, civilian personnel and
army retirees has also been increased by 80 percent.
At the same time, all rank-and-file soldiers' living allowances and board
expenses have also been increased.
The composition of the Chinese military expenditure is roughly the same as
that of the United States. Wages, housing and services take up almost one-third
of the total spending.
Take 2006. These categories of expenditure stood at $12 billion, within the
total $38.1 billion. Of this $12 billion, $8 billion went to wages, living costs
and pensions.
With the rise in these budget by an average of 60 percent in 2007, the total
increase in these categories reaches $4.8 billion. This accounts for the lion's
share in the growth of 2007's total military spending.
Of course, spending on hardware research and development and weapons
procurement has also increased. And the money spent on training and exercises
and on maintaining military activities has risen, too. But this kind of spending
growth pales beside the increase in personnel expenditures.
It is unlikely that military personnel wages will go up by large margins
every year. So, the possibility is extremely low that the country's military
spending will increase dramatically in the coming years.
There is another question: Does China's military expenditure outstrip its
actual needs now that the 2007 Chinese military budget has surpassed Japan's $42
billion and Germany's $37.5? It still trails Britain's $62.38 billion and
France's US$50.78 billion. It is a fraction of the United States' $532.8
billion,
China's military spending falls far behind that of many other countries,
whether in terms of actual amount, military personnel per capita expenditure, or
the general population per capita military spending.
The country's military budget ranks fourth among the world countries and its
GDP also stands fourth in the world. Coincidence? Maybe. I think the two No 4
positions are logically connected to each other.
China is a big country. The military is, therefore, obligated with
overwhelmingly heavy tasks in defending the country. To compound this, the
country is threatened by separatism, terrorism and hegemonism. In view of all
this, China's sizable military spending is totally justified.
My latest research shows that a country would find it hard to achieve
military modernization when military personnel per capita spending remains below
$100,000.
The US military's per capita budget in 2007, for instance, is $383,000, the
highest in the world. Next comes Britain ($324,000), followed by Japan
($175,000), Germany ($148,000) and France ($146,000).
In contrast, China's per capita spending on its soldiers is only US$19,540.
The country has set a rather moderately paced timetable by today's international
standards to modernize its military forces. Extending to 2050, it covers three
stages: from 2006 to 2010, from 2010 to 2020, and from 2020 to 2050.
It is predicted that, during these three phases of military modernization,
China's military budget will increase moderately each year to keep up with the
country's economic development and its defense needs. This is aimed at closing
the wide military strength gaps between the country and the world's military
powers.
Does China's military expenditure outstrip its actual defense needs? Facts
constitute the best gauge.
Western military analysts are very clear that Chinese fleets, air force,
ground troops and strategic rocket forces are on a secondary tier with the
world's leading military powers in terms of quality and quantity of its core
battle equipment.
The basic facts and stark reality determine that it is impossible for China
to enter an arms race with the world's military powers. Most important of all,
China's State strategy and military strategy are geared to peaceful development
and active defense.
The ultimate goal is to build a harmonious society inside the country and a
world in harmony outside. So the country needs no military expansion or a
strategy designed for military interference overseas. China has no military
bases overseas and the country has never launched pre-emptive attacks against
others.
By all measures, Chinese military expenditure is still very humble.
The author is a council member of China Arms Control and Disarmament
Association
