Bank seen rising 52 pct in Shanghai debut

(Reuters)
Updated: 2007-05-14 14:07

Shares in China's Bank of Communications (BoCom) are expected to jump 52 percent when they debut on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on Tuesday, analysts said, boosted by the bank's strong earnings growth and investor interest in new shares.

BoCom's Shanghai A shares are likely to trade at about 12 yuan on their first day of trading, against their initial public offer price of 7.90 yuan. Four analysts polled by Reuters on Monday predicted a range of 11.26 to 12.76 yuan.

That would give the A shares a premium of 44 percent over BoCom's Hong Kong-listed H shares , based on the H share price at midday on Monday, although analysts said the domestic trading price would be in line with the A shares of other Chinese banks.

BoCom, China's fifth-largest commercial bank, raised 25.2 billion yuan ($3.3 billion) last month in the country's fourth-biggest domestic public offer by selling 3.19 billion new A shares, equivalent to 6.51 percent of its expanded capital. The IPO attracted a record 1.455 trillion yuan in subscriptions.

Analysts forecast that BoCom's earnings would see stable annual rises of 25 to 30 percent over the next two or three years, lifted by China's rapid economic growth.

"Helped by HSBC's strategic investment, BoCom is also strong in risk control and is seeing a quick expansion in sales outlets," said industry analysts Wu Yonggang at Guotai Junan Securities.

BoCom, based in China's financial hub of Shanghai and 18.6 percent owned by HSBC Holdings Plc. , achieved a ratio of non-performing loans to total loans of only 2.01 percent at the end of last year, compared with an industry average of 7.09 percent, company and regulatory figures showed.

Its Shanghai debut is likely to be one of a string of highly successful financial sector listings, in large part reflecting a bull run on the domestic stock market, analysts said.

Domestic A shares in China CITIC Bank Corp. , the country's seventh-largest, jumped 96 percent on their debut in Shanghai on April 27, compared with a 14 percent rise in its H shares listed simultaneously in Hong Kong.

The benchmark Shanghai stock index was at 4,053.851 points at midday on Monday, up 0.8 percent on the day and holding near its all-time high of 4,072.138 set last week, despite regulatory risk warnings over the weekend.

The index has risen more than 50 percent since the start of 2007.

A price of 12 yuan would value BoCom at about 35 times analysts' estimated 2007 earnings of 0.34 yuan a share.

That would be slightly higher than an average 33 times for 11 Chinese banks listed on the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong exchanges, but cheaper than 36 for the Shanghai-listed A shares of China Merchants Bank , according to Reuters Estimates.

"BoCom is most comparable to China Merchants Bank and a 35 times forecast P/E is not that high as a result," said Liu Xiaochang, banking industry analyst at Huatai Securities. ($1=7.675 Yuan)



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