Beijing's population is likely to hit 20 million by 2020, largely because of the continued influx of migrants from other parts of the country, experts predicted.
A report released by the Population Institute of Peking University projects the capital's population demographic distribution in the coming decade.
Beijing's current population is about 15 million.
According to the report’s predictions, in 20 years 12 percent will be considered aged, and about 13 percent will be youth, the report said. This suggests challenges ahead for the labor and social services sector supporting such a population.
The report, the result of three years research, should help the municipal government plan and develop policies in areas including social welfare, education, housing, and medical services.
Statistics show the city's birth rate has been slightly lower than the death rate in previous years. Birth rates this year and last were above average due to couples wanting to have a child during this auspicious birth year.
But Yang Hui, a researcher with Beijing-based Renmin University of China, warned that an aging society puts "great pressure" on a city's medical rescources and a "burden" on the workforce.
Over the past 50 years, Beijing has witnessed a huge jump in its residential population from 4.2 million in 1949 to some 15 million today.
"It was mostly caused by the influx of non-native residents from all parts of China, including migrant workers, technicians and those employed by government and State-run organizations," the report said.
With such rapid economic and social development, Beijing expects an even greater migration of people next year on the coattails of the Olympics and the opportunities that follow, the Population Institute report added.
（英语点津 Celene 编辑）
About the broadcaster:
Jonathan Stewart is a media and journalism expert from the United States with four years of experience as a writer and instructor. He accepted a foreign expert position with chinadaily.com.cn in June 2007 following the completion of his Master of Arts degree in International Relations and Comparative Politics.
