For quite some time now, the problems in the real estate market, and the
complaints about them, have occupied much space in the Chinese press.
They gave rise to the "eight points" guidelines for regulating the market
issued by the State Council, China's cabinet, in the middle of last year,
followed by the State Council's "six points" in mid-May this year, then followed
by the "15 points" last week, jointly signed by a number of key central
government agencies.
No doubt these guidelines will do their bit to dampen the rapidly growing
enthusiasm for property investment and stabilize housing prices in major cities.
Restrictions will be heavy for certain buyers of certain types of housing,
particularly those who expect to turn property ownership into a kind of
investment by buying large units and renting them to expatriate tenants working
for multinational corporations.
Their purchasing plans are identified as the major factor driving up housing
prices.
At the same time, developers are required to build more small units, which
will have to be no less than 70 per cent of their total offerings. The supply of
small units is likely, as a result, to see an increase over the next six months,
and this enlarged supply will probably help stabilize overall housing prices.
These are necessary moves to cool down a market driven by unbridled growth
and perhaps waste. A relatively quiet real estate industry will help China rein
in its overall GDP growth for the year by reducing the demand for some key
production materials.
But these are all policies to bring about short-term assistance. Housing
problems, especially in large cities like Beijing and Shanghai, have some
deeper-level significance and require policies featuring greater foresight and
long-term benefits.
First of all, the current attempt to slow down real estate investment cannot
be, as some commentators in the Chinese-language press seem to suggest, a war
between the government acting on behalf of the public interest and unruly
property developers.
Those merchants may not be particularly attractive personalities. Nor does
their industry have much to boast about in technological progress or managerial
expertise.
But they are the ones that happen to operate in a market that generates more
economic growth and consumer spending than many other things can do especially
at the stage when every Chinese household is looking for ways to improve its
housing conditions.
It is not right, of course, for property developers to hijack public policies
because of their importance by doing whatever brings them the highest returns.
But those who make policies should also do more to define the role of the
business.
However, for quite long and longer than the time that officials have been
busy with such details as the size of houses and their maximum prices some more
important questions have remained unanswered.
Should, for instance, Chinese cities have a distinctive division between rich
people's living quarters and those belonging to the rest of society? Some
developers said yes. While their critics, arguing from a moralistic standpoint,
said no.
But if in reality, there are customers who aspire for larger units, whether
for investment or for their own use, where should those houses be? Should they
occupy locations best equipped with public facilities, which I tend to think
belong to average homeowners, or should they be built in some distant spots?
At the same time, should cities like Beijing and Shanghai consider moving
some of their cities' functions to new cities in nearby provinces? Why should
they, for instance, keep so many crammed university campuses in their cities?
After all, they have little room to develop.
Why must every corporation keep its headquarters, along with a whole army of
supporting staff, in a major city in order to claim national importance?
Why, in the era of the Internet and mass communications, must every media
organization keep its general office in downtown to advertise its presence?
Again, there is the question I raised one year ago when I started this
column, why would any rational person want to work in Beijing's central business
district? The traffic jam has never relaxed a bit since I worked there for an
investment firm in 2000. No improvement in six years, what development is that?
Email: younuo@chinadaily.com.cn
(China Daily 06/05/2006 page4)