Oil prices surged to a record above US$78 a barrel
Thursday in a market agitated by escalating violence in the Middle East and the
threat of supply disruptions there and beyond.
 Traders
work the oil futures pit at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Thursday,
July 13, 2006. Oil prices shot up to a new high, roiling stocks on Wall
Street, as hostilities in the Middle East escalated. [AP
Photo] |
The latest surge in oil shook stock-market investors' confidence, though
economists said most US consumers and businesses appear to be absorbing higher
energy costs surprisingly well.
US gasoline demand continues to rise in spite of near US$3-a-gallon pump
prices, core inflation remains relatively low and the US economy is forecast to
grow by roughly 3 percent in the second half of the year.
"Two years ago I might have said that US$70 or US$75 a barrel would be some
kind of a tipping point. Now I'm not so sure anymore," said Nariman Behravesh,
chief economist at Global Insight, a private forecasting firm.
Still, Behravesh said lower-income Americans are suffering disproportionately
from higher energy costs and "I could certainly make a policy case for helping
them out on a temporary basis."
Light sweet crude for August delivery settled at a new high of US$76.70 a
barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, then continued climbing in
after-hours electronic trading, when volumes are significantly lower, to
US$78.35. The rally came as fighting between Israel and Lebanon intensified,
explosions hit Nigerian oil installations and a diplomatic standoff dragged on
between the West and Iran over its nuclear program.
The previous Nymex settlement record of US$75.19 was set July 5. The previous
intraday record of US$75.78 was posted two days later.
Adjusted for inflation, oil prices would need to rise to about US$90 a barrel
to exceed the highs set a quarter century ago when supplies tightened in the
aftermath of a revolution in Iran and a war between Iraq and Iran.
Today oil prices are being pushed higher by rising global demand and worries
that the world's limited supply cushion would not be adequate to offset a
lengthy disruption to output in major producing countries, such as Iran or
Nigeria. There are also concerns about the risks hurricanes pose to US
production.
The latest fear being priced into the market is that the conflict between
Israel and Lebanon could spill over into other corners of the Middle East, the
region that produces nearly a third the world's oil and contains almost
two-thirds of its untapped reserves.
Israel intensified its attacks against Lebanon on Thursday, imposing a naval
blockade, twice hitting Beirut's airport and blasting two Lebanese army air
bases near Syria. Hezbollah fired more than 100 rockets into Israel, which said
one also struck the port city of Haifa. More than 51 people have died in two
days of violence following the capture of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah
militants, who have financial links to Syria and Iran.
Iran has threatened on more than one occasion to use oil as a weapon if the
United Nations uses economic sanctions or some other punishment in its dispute
with Tehran over its nuclear program. While OPEC's No. 2 supplier has not raised
the issue of withholding oil from the market in a sign of solidarity with
Hezbollah, the possibility is no doubt influencing oil traders' actions.
"It plays psychologically in people's minds," said Larry Goldstein, president
of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, a New York-based
industry-financed think tank. "You don't have to hear them say it."
In Nigeria, government officials said twin explosions hit oil installations
belonging to an Italian oil company in the volatile southeastern delta region.
Elsewhere, militants attacked a group of 11 boats carrying supplies to Chevron's
offshore oil fields Wednesday, killing four navy sailors who were escorting the
convoy, Brig. Gen. Alfred Ilogho said Thursday.
"The oil price has become a register of geopolitical tensions and fears,"
said Daniel Yergin, who heads Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
Yergin said petroleum supply-demand fundamentals are improving, with global
oil inventories and spare oil-production capacity rising, but clearly not enough
to offset the geopolitical unrest.
The surge in oil prices rattled stock market investors, sending the Dow Jones
industrials sharply lower for the second straight day. Shares of Wal-Mart Stores
Inc., the world's largest retailer, slumped 2 percent on the New York Stock
Exchange on concerns that high energy prices are cutting into consumers'
discretionary income.
"The economy took US$50 oil in stride," Yergin said. "It's clearly not taking
US$70 or US$75 a barrel in stride. This is a rougher adjustment."
With US oil companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. earning
record amounts, some members of Congress have proposed taxing "windfall" profits
in order to finance energy assistance programs for the poor, but the idea does
not have wide support.
The energy-policy debate in Washington right now centers around efforts to
repeal the ban on offshore drilling and to fix a law that allows oil and
natural-gas companies to avoid billions of dollars of royalty payments on
offshore drilling leases.
Critics say Congress has failed in its approach to deal with soaring energy
costs because it has not given as much attention to curbing demand as it has to
adding supplies, such as a hotly debated proposal to open an Alaskan wildlife
refuge to oil drilling.
"We too often forget that the United States is far and away the biggest
consumer of oil," said Tyson Slocum, an energy expert at Public Citzen, a
Washington-based consumer watchdog. Slocum said the country needs to invest more
in public transportation and to sharply increase automobile fuel-economy
standards.